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Debating Democracy

The folks over at NRO's The Corner have been having a spirited debate about the efficacy of democratization as a counterterrorism method in light of recent events in Lebanon.  Andy McCarthy started the debate by asking if fighting terrorism through democratization migh be - and might have always been - a mistake. 

    "So now the Lebanese democracy can't control Hezbollah (which has been freely     elected     and controls about a fifth of its legislature), while the Palestinian Authority     IS Hamas     (the Palestinian people having democratically put them in power)."

This is the same mistake I'm worried the administration has been willing to make - the assumption that elections equals democracy.  In either the 2002 NSS or the 2003 National Counterterrorism Strategy (I forget which - maybe both), the administration broke states down into three categories: states that were willing and able to fight terrorists operating within its borders (most developed countries), states that, regardless of whether they were able, weren't willing to fight terrorists operating within their borders (syria, Iran, etc), and states that were willing, but not able to fight terrorists operating within their borders.  States such as the Philippines and Indonesia fit into this last category.  The Arroyo government in Philippines got US help in going after Abu Sayyaf and other Islamic militants operating in the south.  Indonesia got US help in fighting Jemaah Islamiya.  For whatever reason, however, we never gave post-Cedar Revolution Lebanon much help.  True, perhaps they didn't want any, but I'm willing to bet that the West more or less dropped Lebanon after it held large demostrations and elected its own government.   Lebanon may have been on the road to being a democracy, but there was not much it could do to strengthen itself enough to offer the services incumbent on any government - the same services Hezbollah had been offering in the south of Lebanon to win over support.  This wasn't a failure of democracy to fight terrorism, it was a failure to ensure a fledgling democracy move beyond elections and be able to govern effectively. 

This is a similar point Cliff May makes in a response to McCarthy on The Corner.

    And finally, yes, Hamas was elected, but, no, that doesn’t mean Gaza and the West     Bank     are “democratic.” Democracy requires the rule of law, an independent     judiciary, a free     press, and many other attributes. If someone got up on a     soapbox in Gaza City tomorrow     and said: “Vote for me, I’m the peace candidate!”     he’d be shot dead within an instant and     there’d be no arrest or trial. That’s not     what happens in a liberal democracy.

The discussion also touched on the way in which democracy does (or does not) fight terrorism.  McCarthy says the in response to a comment by John Podhoretz:

    John, with due respect, terrorists have managed to strike us, repeatedly, from within     our     own     230-year-old democracy (where they have managed to plot for years     without     detection before     attacking).  The beach heads for the 9/11 plot were in     Hamburg and     Madrid.  The current     hotspots are in London, Paris, Milan and         Amsterdam.  Check out     yesterday's Wall Street Journal     op-ed by Swapan     Dasgupta about India's emerging t     errorist nightmare — it's homegrown.

McCarthy came to my school earlier this year to talk, along with two professors from the law school, about the legal aspect of the war on terror.  At the end of his talk, however, he brought out this same argument.  I thought this then, and this new debate reminds me: McCarthy is arguing against something of a strawman here.  The contention has never been that terrorists can not live, plan and operate within the borders of a democracy.  I live in a democracy, but if I decided that I wanted to go kill some people, the fact that I voted last Novemeber in an election will not stop the thought from running through my head.  McCarthy continues knocking down straw-men:

    "On the other hand, selling democratization as a complete, self-contained     response     to terrorism is nothing beyond a more appealing manifestation of the     regnant     political correctness that induces us to call this enterprise the "war on     terror" lest     we offend anyone by mentioning who the enemy is"
    
This, has really never been the case.  Even with its commitment to democratization, therefore, the administration has not ended counterterrorist operations.  I don't even know if there is an official count of the number of countries in which US forces are either killing terrorists themselves or teaching the local forces how to kill terrorists (again, back to Philippines and Indonesia like I mentioned above).  The focus of democratization is not, and never has been, on the terrorists themselves.  Democracy is not going to change how they think or act.  The trick is to find a way to decrease their support; to make it easier for us to get at the terrorists to root them out. 

In his book The Case for Democracy, Natan Sharansky delineates between two segments of the population in what he calls a "Fear Society:"  the true believers and those who have no alternative. The focus of democratization, therefore, should not be on the "true believers," the terrorists themselves, but rather on the general populace, and how to decrease its support for the terrorists so as to make it easier for the military to clean up.   There's the administration's claim that democracies allow an alternative to terrorism as a forum for letting out ones grievances, political ambitions, etc.  I think there is a great deal of truth to this, but I also think it has a lot to do with something a lot more simple: access to the necessities for everyday survival.  So much of the support enjoyed by Islamic fundamentalist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah comes from their ability to provide basic services for those willing to support them.  Where the dysfunctional Middle Eastern state fails so miserably in providing the basic services that, as a state s government, it should be obligated to provide for its people, the mosque steps in and fulfills that role.  As a result, the people's allegiance is transferred from the state to to mosque or Islamist group. 

There is no doubt, however, that democracies, even somewhat weak ones, govern better than authoritarian regimes.  The following is an excerpt from my thesis that I wrote on the same subject. 


    "For the handful of examples of authoritarian states successfully promoting     economic     development and democratization, there have been significantly more      authoritarian states     that have sustained sub-par economic growth and little sign     of political liberalization.  In     fact, the record indicates that low-income countries     would be better served skipping the     authoritarian stage and democratizing     instead.  Low-income democracies and     democratizing states have “outperformed      their authoritarian counterparts on a full range     of development     indicators…including life expectancy, literacy, access to clean drinking     water,     agricultural productivity, infant mortality."

Since a democratic regime is beholden to the entire population, and not just the political, ethnic or economic faction that put it in power, it is forced to provide services to the entire population.  When the average citizen is forced to support a certain movement or group because it provides medical services or clothing for his children, his support will not transfer back to the central government until he is sure that government can provide the same services.  Authoritarian governments do not have the track record of being able to provide there services - or, indeed, being willing to provide these services to those not in the specific political or ethnic groups it counts on for protection and loyalty. 

If you were to put a democratic regime in government as opposed to an authoritarian one, a democratic regime that was at the point where it could provide these services to its people, you can bet support for the terrorist groups would decline sharply.  A terrorist group that loses its support among the public is left open and exposed to the states military and police forces.  No longer can terrorists hide among the local population and count on those people to keep silent about who among them is a terrorist and who isn't.  With this, they lose one of their most effective weapons - being able to cause the world to question the government's position on the moral high ground because it is forced to bomb indiscriminately - civilian and terrorist alike - because they can't tell who is who. 

No one argues it is a cure-all.  Democracy does not eliminate the need for a military response to bomb the hell out of the bad guys.  Democracy does, however, make it far more easy to implement this military response, b/c people are increasingly willing to point out who the bad guys are.  Democracy does not affect the terrorist response so much as it affects the response of the rest of the population.

One last thing: McCarthy raises the (legitimate) question of whether we really want to see democracies in places like Egypt and Saudi Arabia given the likely alternative.  Unfortunately this is true - but only because so many of those arguing against democratization have made it true (I don't intend this as an attack on McCarthy - I have no idea what his position has been on this subject over the years).  The reason this is the likely outcome in these states is because of decades of American support for dictators.  While there is little we can do about that now, if the United States continues to support oppressive dictators rather than liberal democrats, it will make this drawback to democracy a self-fulfilling prophecy.  It will not promote democracy because uncertainty about what the outcome will be necessitates supporting "friendly" dictators, while the supposrt for these dictators will create the conditions whereby the outcome will be too uncertain to allow for democracy promotion. 
 
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A Tory For Saddam?

Twice a year, the British Prime Minister comes before the Liaison Committee, consisting of the heads of all of the parliamentary committees, to discuss his administration's policies.  It's a much more candid and (relatively) unscripted exchange compared to Prime Minister's Questions, and it covers a number of issues at a much more sophisticated level than does Prime Minister's Questions, where members vie for the opportunity to ask the Prime Minister what he plans to do about the random fellow in that member's constituency who stubbed his toe walking down the sidewalk because a crack had formed in the pavement and it had become uneven.

Tony Blair went before the Liaison Committee on Tuesday, and I caught C-SPAN's coverage of it tonight.  It was really very fascinating, covering a range of issues from Northern Ireland, to immigration issues, to Iraq and Afghanistan to the US-British relationship.  If C-SPAN has coverage of it on its website, I would recommend watching it.  Tony Blair looked incredibly composed, leaning back in his chair, he might as well have had his feet up on the table.  The committee members, however, were breaking into sweats, shuffling papers and fidgeting. 

In any case, one exchange caught me by surprise.  Blair had responded to earlier questions by telling stories of his trips to Iraq and his conversations with British soldiers and Iraqi government officials.  Edward Leigh, the conservative member from Gainesborough, and chairman of the Public Accounts Committee, asked a question that was intended to point out the security problems in Iraq.   I don't have a transcript, but this BBC report sums up the exchange rather well.

Tory Edward Leigh challenged Mr Blair over the number of Iraqis who had died since the invasion and asked whether life really was better than pre-war.

[...]However, Mr Leigh, chairman of the influential Commons public accounts committee, said thousands of Iraqis had died since the conflict, and while he had been able to walk around Baghdad safely in Saddam's time, no-one could do the same now.


There was only one response to make to this astounding remark, and Blair nailed it - one of the very few emotional outbursts he let loose.

Mr Blair said that was because Mr Leigh was a Westerner and not an Iraqi who disagreed with the former dictator. If he had been an Iraqi who disagreed with Saddam Hussein he would have ended up in a mass grave, said Mr Blair.

On the Iraqi deaths, the prime minister snapped angrily: "They are not dead as a result of this invasion or the removal of Saddam.

"They are dead as a result of the actions of a criminal minority. Our job is to stand with the Iraqis against the terrorists."

Mr Blair said the politicians he talked to in Iraq had been elected by Iraqis, and said if people had wanted to they could have voted for the "Saddam party".

Leigh continued to protest for a while that Iraqis were better off under Saddam becausue HE had been able to walk around safely.  With regards to Blair's stories about his visits to Iraq, Leigh asked him when he last spoke to an "ordinary Iraqi."  Blair admitted that this wasn't possible for him on his visits, but Leigh had no place to take satisfaction in this answer.  Blair rightly said that he had talked numerous times with the elected Iraqi government officials, picked by the "ordinary Iraqis."  By his own admission, Leigh's only trip had been during Saddam's regime.  I'd be interested in learning who invited him to visit Iraq, and what the purpose of his trip was.  A number of the other Conservatives on the committee made a point of reminding Blair that they had supported his decision to go into Iraq, and still do, while still asking tough questions about government policy.  That was a great relief to me, because I sure hope Leigh does not represent the current state of the Tory party. 
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Another Leak

Speaking of embarassing polemicists, not long after writing my last post, I caught the first 15 minutes or so of the Countdown with Keith Olbermann midnight repeat.  Unfortunately, a transcript won't be up until monday, but the first story was about the news today of the threat to attack the PATH train tunnels between NY and NJ.  The former sportscaster used his favorite tactic of arguing that the administration released the news of the threat, even though it hadn't advanced very far in the planning stages, in order to perpetuate a climate of fear in the American populace, presumably because it's an election year.  

The only problem, of course, is that the administration did not disclose the news of this planned attack.  Someone leaked it to the Daily News, who printed it up in a big story this morning.  That also explains why we  found out about it while it was still at such an early stage.  The people at the press conference in New York City today included Mayor Bloomberg, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Superintendent of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Samuel Plumeri and SAIC of the FBI's New York office, Mark Mershon.  There was not a single administration official.  Only after the Daily News published the story, and after the press conference, did the FBI and Department of Homeland Security issue a statement. 

As an aside, ff you think back over the last 5 years, the administration has made public very few instances where they thought a terrorist attack was in the works or could be possible.  I remember a Somali immigrant who was accused of plotting to bomb a Columbus, OH shopping mall in 2004, the possible plot against the Citigroup, Prudential, World Bank, NYSE and IMF buildings in New York, New Jersey and Washington, the plot to bomb the Bank of America Tower in Los Angeles, the Miami plot from a couple weeks ago, and now this one.  (The color coded scale was also used a fair amount, particularly with regards to the NY subway system, but news of "color changes" has been very scarce in recent months and years, indicating that that was more an attempt to show that the newly-established DHS was "doing something," and certainly not to affect political races).  So, in all, that was 5 plots that were made public in all their detail in the last 5 years.  (I'm not saying that was all of them, but those were certainly the big ones - if I missed some, please let me know).  Hardly the use of a political tool by the administration.

Going back to today's news, the FBI was, in fact, upset that the story was leaked.  They realized it was in the early planning stages, and there was a great deal of information that they, and intelligence agencies of other countries involved, had yet to learn about the plot itself, the individuals planning it and the connections they had with other terrorists and terrorist plots. 

Authorities said they hadn't intended to release details about the plot this early and that whoever leaked the information had compromised the FBI's relationship with some foreign intelligence services.

The person who leaked the details is"clearly someone who doesn't understand the fragility of international relations,'' Mershon said. `We've had a number of uncomfortable questions and some upsetment with these foreign intelligence services that had been working with us on a daily basis.''

In the wake of the New York Times, Washington Post and other newspapers printing stories about the NSA programs, the prisons in Europe and SWIFT, if those who have been unyielding in their defense of the public's right to know might be willing to admit that publishing this story did more harm than good in terms of the damage done to our relationships with foreign intelligence services as well as the additional intelligence we could have gotten by continued surveillance of these individuals and their accomplices.   If the answer is no, then I ask, with regards to the public's right to know, what did we get out of this news?  People like Olbermann were criticizing the administration for letting us know.  So how can the administration possible win?  Apparently, it can't.
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Americans Are Smarter Than That

Editor and Publisher is reporting that Universal Press Syndicate, which carries Ann Coulter's columns, will look into reports that Coulter may have plagiarized a number of her columns.  Claims of plagiarism by Coulter were apparently first published by the New York Post.  To be honest, I don't really care whether Coulter plagiarized her columns or books or anything else.  That's not because I don't appreciate the seriousness of the charge of plagiarism, because I do.  Rather, I don't care whether Coulter plagiarized because I don't care about Coulter.  Generally speaking, I have little tolerance for polemicists on either side, including Coulter, O'Reilly or Hannity on the right, and Michael Moore, Al Franken or any other polemicist on the left.  The reason is that they simply add very little to the public debate about any issue at all, or even political life in general.  I'm simply amazed at the number of books Coulter can put out that are bestsellers, yet all revolve around the same exact issue: how stupid liberals are. 

I disagree with liberals on nearly every issue of the day, with very few exceptions.  Likewise, I'm no great fan of elites and establishment figures (in the media, in universities, etc) that often have god-complexes and feel the world should bow down before them.  But that does not mean that I am opposed to intellectual conversation and discovery.  (The saddest part is, Coulter actually graduated from Michigan Law).  Calling all liberals stupid, and then calling all conservatives liars or corporate shills, only to be answered that all liberals are traitors, to be quite honest, bores me.  Besides, Americans are smarter than that.  Many conservatives have (rightfully) argued that democrats should make efforts to make clear that Michael Moore, Al Franken, Air America and others do not represent their party.  Likewise, Republicans have made similar arguments, that are not entirely unconvincing, that these figures of the radical left do indeed play far too great a role in the Democratic Party. 

Let's not forget, though, that Coulter's and Hannity's books are making the NY Times bestsellers list as well.  Likewise, The O'Reilly Factor is possibly the most popular show on any of the three main news channels.  These people do not represent me as a conservative, and, in my mind, we should ensure that they are not allowed to become the standard-bearers of the Republican Party.  I get mad when the talk shows call in Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell or others to get the "religious" perspective on an issue.  They don't represent me as a Christian, not even as a conservative Christian.  I get similarly upset when Ann Coulter or other polemicists (different from pundits, because there are plenty of smart conservatives and liberals that make the talk show rounds) are trotted out to speak for the conservatives. 
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Who's A Conservative?

There have been a number of divisions in the Republican party that have emerged in recent years.  In foreign policy, some claim that the Bush administration has betrayed conservatism by running around the world trying to solve the world's problems.  They argue that democratization is not conservative, that democracy can not take hold in every society on earth.  These conservatives generally make up the realist foreign policy camp.  These conservatives also generally include everyone at the CATO Institute and even some people at Heritage.  Many of these  conservatives probably voted for Bush in 2000, but then voted for Kerry in 2004.  On the other side of the foreign policy divide are the neoconservatives, who have great faith in the power of democracy to solve the world's problems.  These conservatives are the ones you find at AEI, Weekly Standard and on the Project for the New American Century list of signatories.  These are also the ones who have been accused of not really being conservative.  On social policy, you have the more libertarian-minded Republicans on one side and the social conservatives on the other.  Then there are the Republicans who count themselves as fiscal conservatives above all else. 

I've been reading Right Nation: Conservative Power in America, written by two British writers from The Economist.  (It came out a couple years ago; I'm just getting to it now).  The authors' powers of observation are simply astounding, and the Introduction alone has enough information and insight to spend hours considering.  One point I want to mention, however, is their description of the roots of modern day  conservatism, namely Edmund Burke.

"The creed of Edmund Burke, [conservatism's] most eloquent proponent, might be crudely reduced to six principles: a deep suspicion of the power of the state, a preference for liberty over equality, patriotism, a belief in established institutions and hierarchies, skepticism about the idea of progress and elitism."

The writers argue that modern day conservatives still adhere to the first three, but have taken opposite positions on the last three.  Modern day conservatives in America, they argue, are generally suspicious of the establishment and elites, and have an endless supply of optimism about the future.  They offer one exception to the idea of optimism, however, saying that the neoconservatives, which they call "Straussians," are, like Leo Strauss, inherently pessimistic about modernity. 

This had me thinking back to a grad school class I took, in which the professor (a leading realist) tried to push the same point: that neoconservatives are inherently pessimistic about America's future.   This was generally the realists' attempt to lay claim to the (optimistic) Reagan legacy that the modern and neoconservatives were also trying (more realistically, in my opinion) to claim.  (The best example of realists trying to claim the Reagan legacy was the book America Alone)  I always had trouble accepting this, because if you read stuff written by neoconservatives, they are full of optimism about what they think they can accomplish.  They don't have a pessimistic view of America itself, but simply think it's been taken in the wrong direction (just like every other political/ideological group thinks).  Instead, it is many realists who are the pessimists. 

Realists are generally broken up into two camps, the human-nature realists and the structural realists.  The human-nature realists, like Hans Morgenthau, argue that man is inherently evil, and as such, war and conflict will be an inevitable occurrence in international relations.  Structural realists, which include many of the modern-day realists, argue that the structure of the international system, namely that it is anarchic, makes it a self-help system in which each state will be looking to maximize their power at the expense of the power of other countries.  (There are of course, the defensive and offensive split within the structural realist camp, and even more subtle distinctions beyond that level, but for our purposes this generalization will suffice). 

Read "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War. by John Mearsheimer for an apocalyptic vision of Europe in which every country has nuclear weapons pointed at each other from all directions (and this after the Cold War was over!).  Read anything by Kenneth Waltz, who has argued for years that the end of American supremacy was just around the corner.  Read the self-flagellating accounts of liberals and realists about everything America has supposedly done wrong, read the accounts of how the European Union is supposedly becoming the new superpower.  Many realists are also all too often big on criticism and short on solutions.  In fact, their solutions are often to just not do something.  Many, such as Mearsheimer, see war between other states as inevitable regardless of whether American troops are there to prevent such an occurrence.  As such, we should draw down troop levels at bases overseas so that when war does break out American troops aren't in the middle of the fight.  Other solutions include to not expand NATO because it would risk antagonizing Russia.  They have little faith in the changing power of democracy, and as such see little need for an organization like NATO now that the Cold War is over. 

Many neoconservatives, however, see democracy less as an ends in and of itself, and more as a powerful tool to shape the world for good.  Many liberal hawks take similar positions, but neoconservatives and those allied with them have a much more lasting faith in democracy than even liberals.  Democracy has changed countries for the better, it has taken root in countries of all cultures, civilizations, levels of political and economic development and means of implementation.  Democracy has taken root in some countries at gunpoint, as well as through means of general change.  This reality, therefore, negates the realists' claims that democracy cannot take hold in certain countries.  Their opposition to democratization, therefore, is the result of a greater pessimism towards the power of democracy to enact change.  With the record of what democracy has done in the last couple decades, who is really being pessimistic here? 

Neoconservatives, and their political allies, therefore follow the first three attributes of Burke's conservatism (you can, of course argue against the first one given the current administration's record on government spending, but that's been the one area where he's attracted the most criticism from his supporters.  In any case, that's for another time), and have rejected the latter three attributes of Burke's conservatism, namely the rejection of the establishment and elites and a pessimistic view of man and progress.  Therefore, modern conservatives, including neoconservatives,  embody all the positive attributes of Burke's conservatismm (suspicion of the state, patriotism, liberty over equality) and reject the old and outdates attributes, namely pessimism about America and mankind, support for the establishment and elitism).  That sounds pretty good to me. 

I recommend The Right Nation if you have not read it.  As I said, it gives you a lot to think about, and I'm sure I'll have more comments as I go through it. 
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That Pesky Lobby

Foreign Policy has a number of articles in its latest issue as part of a roundtable (subscription required for all but one article) on the question of the "Israel Lobby," which has recently received prominence with the article in the London Review of Books and the Kennedy School working paper written by John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago and Stephen Walt of Harvard University.  Foreign Policy asks the question, "Does the Israel Lobby have too much power" in American politics.  Taking the affirmative are Professors Mearsheimer and Walt, along with Zbigniew Brzezinski.  Taking the opposite side are Cheney's former Deputy National Security Advisor and professor Princeton, Aaron Friedberg, Shlomo Ben-Ami, a former Israeli cabinet official under Ehud Barak, and Dennis Ross, former Middle Eastern envoy under President Clinton. 

I have yet to read all of the articles, but will do so in the near future.  In the meantime, I'll focus on the original article by Professors Mearsheimer and Walt.  Some people think it was anti-Semitic, but I am not one of them.  I just think it was wrong, and incredibly sloppy social science.  In my mind, this article is a black mark on the work done over the decades by these two academics.  Not all of it I have agreed with, but it has all been written at a consistently high standard that this work simply does not even come close to meeting. 

Methodological Flaws

With regards to methodological flaws, the historian in me cringes at a purportedly scholarly piece of writing taken almost entirely from newspaper articles. I've noticed a disheartening trend in international relations scholarship in recent years where sourcing seems to come entirely from newspapers.  Read through an edition of International Security, for example, to find evidence of this trend.  I wouldn't be willing to stake money on this, but a lot of articles with this type of sourcing have happened to be ones heavily critical of the current administration.  Of course, if this is what they set out to do, there has been all sorts of cannon fodder in the newspapers over the last couple years, but that does not mean it has been right.  All sorts of speculation, unnamed sourcing and inaccurate information makes its way into press accounts.  Professors from institutions like the University of Chicago and Harvard should not be using this as their primary material for the scholarly work.  

In his rebuttal of the Mearsheimer/Walt aritcle, Alan Dershowitz raises this same point.  There is very little, if, indeed, anything in the way of primary research done for this article.  Neither Mearsheimer nor Walt appear to actually have talked to anyone involved in the policy-making process with regards to Israel.  As a result, there are serious historical errors and quotes taken out of context that are referenced in the article.  Certainly, such research will not always unveil the truth, but it would probably require some sort of analysis on the part of the authors and would do wonders to raise the scholarly level of the article.

Additionally, while I understand documents on the decision making process that led to the Iraq War are probably hard to get ones hands on (not so much the case for documents dealing with our relationship with Israel in past decades though), there are, nevertheless, many VERY in depth accounts out ther of the decision making process that led to the war, based on original research, have been written.  To take just two examples of such authors, Bob Woodward and George Packer. I don't know if Mearsheimer and Walt even bothered to try and get interviews or to try and see if there were any declassified documents to get their hands on, but I tend to doubt it. A paper like this simply should not be written from one's office in Chicago or Cambridge using little more than a Lexis-Nexis search.  As Dershowitz pointed out - that can easily lead to silly factual/historical
errors.

Finally, Mearsheimer and Walt define the Israel Lobby as "a loose coalition of individuals and organizations who openly work to push U.S. foreign policy in a pro-Israel direction."  To begin with, their use of the word "loose" is the overstatement of the year.  Members of the Israel Lobby range from neo-conservatives to former Clintonites like Martin Indyk, who neo-conservative publications have treated with near-contempt, calling him "Arafat's 'Yes-man.'"  To believe that these two groups of people, with vastly different ideological roots, could ever agree (even without knowing it) on a certain direction in which to drive US policy towards Israel is laughable.  Thus, the major flaw of the thesis - there is no causality involve - a cardinal sin in the halls of the political science buildings at Chicago and Harvard.  Mearsheimer and Walt name a lof names, but they never show a coherent link between these people and the policies that result from their actions, other than to show a few loose groupings, for example around AIPAC. .

Substantive Flaws

Now, getting on to the substantive aspects of the Mearsheimer and Walt paper. I'll focus first on the question of whether Israel is a strategic burden or not.  Mearsheimer and Walt put forth a number of arguments as to why Israel is a strategic burden. (As Daniel Drezner pointed out at one point, however, the never consider the benefits of Israel as an ally, therefore making it impossible to determine if Israel is a NET strategic burden or not)

1) "The first Gulf War revealed the extent to which Israel was becoming a strategic burden. The US could not use Israeli bases without rupturing the anti-Iraq coalition, and had to divert resources (e.g. Patriot missile batteries) to prevent Tel Aviv doing anything that might harm the alliance against Saddam Hussein."

This is hardly indicative of how Israel was a strategic burden.  More so, it's indicative of how our need to court Arab opinion was (and still is) a strategic burden.  We obviously could have defeated the Iraqi army on our own and pushed them out of Kuwait.  Instead, we decided to build a big coalition, and to have Arab troops "liberate" Kuwait City (after we had done all the hard work).  That was why we needed to keep Israel out of the war.  We had to play nice with a bunch of thug dictators, so we had to sideline Israel.  What does that have to do with what Israel does or doesn't have to offer on its own?  This doesn't explain why Israel shouldn't be an American ally due to a conflict in interests, but rather that our alliance with Israel causes us problems elsewhere. I don't find that reason enough to drop Israel - to do that I would need them to explain to me, independent of outside factors, why Israel is a strategic burden.

On a side note, if we're talking the contributions Arab governments made in terms of military support in Gulf I, I'd personally rather have the far more professional and effective IDF fighting with me than the Syrians, Egyptians or Saudis.

2) "More important, saying that Israel and the US are united by a shared terrorist threat has the causal relationship backwards: the US has a terrorism problem in good part because it is so closely allied with Israel, not the other way around. Support for Israel is not the only source of anti-American terrorism, but it is an important one, and it makes winning the war on terror more difficult."

This has been used for the last 5 years by an array of people, primarily Europeans, who insist that if we just had an equitable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, al Qaeda would go away.  In reality, this is a strawman.  Terrorists aren't coming from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Yemen or elsewhere because of the Palestinians' plight.  The one thing the Palestinian issue does provide is great public relations.  In fact, many would argue that's not much of a reason at all, including Osama bin Laden who has made clear that it is the presence of American troops on the Arabian peninsula that is driving America's terrorism problem. Professor Mearsheimer's colleague at Chicago, Robert Pape, has also argued that, if support for Israel was much of a driving motivation for suicide terrorism against America, you would expect to see the most attacks on US interests coming from Hamas and/or major attacks by al Qaeda on Israeli interests. You don't see either of those.  Mearsheimer and Walt could still be right, but they spend so little time laying out their arguments for why Israel is a strategic burden and far too much time detailing which columnist and which assistant secretary of defense is a member of the "lobby."  The latter doesn't tell us much, but elaboration on the former would. 

3) "Iran’s nuclear ambitions do not pose a direct threat to the US. If Washington could live with a nuclear Soviet Union, a nuclear China or even a nuclear North Korea, it can live with a nuclear Iran. And that is why the Lobby must keep up constant pressure on politicians to confront Tehran."

Note that one sentence starting with "If" and ending with "Iran" is their entire argument on this point. Whether the US could tolerate a nuclear Iran is a contentious issue, on which you could write an entire book. To sum it up in this throw-away sentence makes a mockery of the whole issue. Like I said above, more time elucidating their arguments like these, less time naming names on who is a member of the "lobby" and who isn't.

On a side note, many have pointed out the the two leading "realists" in the field of IR suddenly managed to find the one issue in all of IR that is explained first and foremost by domestic politics rather than the structure of the international system. Rest assured, Mearsheimer and Walt aren't leaving realism. Note how they bunch the Soviet Union, China, North Korea and Iran together in a nuclear club, as if none of the members vary at all in implications for US security. No internal or external (other than the structure of the system) factors specific to any one of those countries allows for any variation at all in how the US should deal with these states.

4) "A final reason to question Israel’s strategic value is that it does not behave like a loyal ally. Israeli officials frequently ignore US requests and renege on promises (including pledges to stop building settlements and to refrain from ‘targeted assassinations’ of Palestinian leaders)."

Israel is an ally, not our lap dog. We weren't overly thrilled when Britain attacked Argentina over the Falklands or when France and Britain tried to start a war over the Suez, but we were bright enough to realize that things like this were going to happen, b/c even the interests of your closest allies don't always coincide with yours. There's plenty of things we wish our European partners would do and wouldn't do. Heck, by Mearsheimer and Walt's logic, France and Germany are also "strategic burdens" for not behaving like a "loyal ally."

Also, to argue that Israel is not allowed to pursue its counterterrorist policy of targeted assassinations (regardless of whether you think its effective or not) when the US is doing the exact same thing to al any Qaeda leaders we find is downright hypocritical. Israel has had a terrorism problem far longer than we have. We can't just barge in, insist everything is to be done "our way" and act shocked when Israel disagrees with that course of action.

5) "Israel is hardly the only country that spies on the US, but its willingness to spy on its principal patron casts further doubt on its strategic value."

This is entirely irrelevant. We spy on every one of our allies in some way, shape or form - and they do the same to us. Go back to Feb/March 2003 when we were trying to get the second resolution passed in the Security Council to authorize war in Iraq. The Observer "broke" a story about how the US was spying on the UN delegation of the Security Council members to find out ahead of time how they were going to vote. The reaction from those countries was overwhelmingly one of indifference because they knew they'd done the same thing to us many times before.

Like I said before, I think there's also a strong moral case to be made for support for Israel - not that Israel is perfect, but that it is far and away morally superior to its neighbors. Mearsheimer and Walt actually (unwittingly) recognize this. When they lament that there is no debate on the issue in the US, they cite the far more robust debate that takes place in Israel itself. By recognizing this Mearsheimer and Walt implicitly recognize the key feature that makes Israel morally superior to its neighbors: its ability to engage in domestic debate and have that debate affect government policy when they recognize that they have been wrong on an issue. This debate drove a number of governments back to the negotiating table in the 1990s, caused a great deal of change in the treatment of Arab Israelis over the years and played a major role in the eventual withdrawal from Gaza last year and the formation of Kadima. Therefore, despite insisting that Israel is, at best, the moral equal of its neighbors, Mearsheimer and Walt recognize otherwise elsewhere in their paper

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Trying To Stop Terrorists

Bloomberg has a story up that claims the Bush administration, through the NSA, was talking with AT&T to set up a program for "domestic call monitoring" up to seven months before the attacks of September 11th 2001.
The U.S. National Security Agency asked AT&T Inc. to help it set up a domestic call monitoring site seven months before the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, lawyers claimed June 23 in court papers filed in New York federal court.
Some on the left, including those responsible for the lawsuit against a number of telecommunications companies for their role in the NSA program are up in arms about this new revelation.
"The Bush Administration asserted this became necessary after 9/11,'' plaintiff's lawyer Carl Mayer said in a telephone interview. "This undermines that assertion.''
At AmericaBlog, "John in DC" is similarly up in arms, and is cited approvingly by "McJoan" at Daily Kos.
This is important because, if true, it negates Bush's entire argument that the spying was needed to fight the war on terror. There was no war on terror before September 11, so why did Bush reportedly decide to start the process enabling him to illegally spy on Americans?
Take note of that second sentence, "There was no war on terror before September 11..." This single sentence is staggering. We can all agree that the attacks of September 11th were acts of terrorism. Therefore, terrorism - specifically, Islamist terrorism - was out in full force prior to September 11th. To begin with, there were the numerous attacks by al Qaeda on American troops, civilians and infrastructure in the decade prior to September 11, 2001. More importantly, the 9/11 hijackers spent years planning the airplane attacks. Only those with their heads buried in the sand for the past decade could claim that there was no war on terror before 9/11, simply because the government hadn't come out with flashy signs and moved it to priority number one on the foreign and defense policy list.

If nowhere else, the "war on terror" had been on for years in the intelligence agencies. Imagine if this program, in conjunction with telecom companies, had been put in place well before 2001, or before the Bush administration took office. Imagine the possibilities for what such a program could have accomplished in terms of counterterrorism; what the NSA and Intelligence Community could have learned about the hijackers' plan. But because some government PR department hadn't yet come up with the phrase "War on Terror," terrorism apparently did not exist.

This goes a long way in explaining why I consider the Republicans to be the stronger party on national security. There are, to be certain, fair and tough minded Democrats with whom I generally agree on this issue, but all too often the Democrats come out with statements like this one which go a long way in showing that they're more interested in what political gains they can make from the situation and don't even consider the damage it does to their credentials on national security.
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